Markets see 70 percent chance of a Federal Reserve hike on December 9

Prediction markets put a Federal Reserve rate hike on December 9 at roughly 70 percent, according to DeFi Rate’s report published Oct 31, 2026, at 12:15 PM ET. Its headline lists Kalshi at 69.5 cents and Polymarket at 70.5 cents.

Prices lower over the week

DeFi Rate’s October 31 board shows the December hike price falling 4 points over seven days. The decline leaves a hike priced as more likely than not, despite a lower reading than a week earlier.

The report’s summary separately lists two Kalshi markets pricing a December hike at 70.0 percent and 73.5 percent. Those readings differ from the 69.5-cent Kalshi price cited in the headline.

The supplied material does not explain the differences among the Kalshi readings or provide contract terms. It therefore does not establish whether the prices reflect timing differences or distinct market specifications.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction: The reported 4-point weekly decline indicates reduced pricing for a December hike, not a shift to a hike being the less likely outcome.
• Cross-platform comparison: The headline’s Polymarket price of 70.5 cents is 1 cent above Kalshi’s 69.5 cents, but the separately reported Kalshi probabilities complicate a direct comparison.
• Contract details matter: Without market terms or an explanation of the different readings, the figures should not be treated as interchangeable estimates for an identical outcome.