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Detroit’s Super Bowl pricing diverges between Polymarket and US sportsbooks

RG's November 5 comparison puts Detroit at 4.0 percent on Polymarket against 5.3 to 5.9 percent at the books, the widest gap on its Super Bowl board for a winning team. San Francisco leads both boards at about 14 percent, with Polymarket at plus 604 and the books at plus 600.

Detroit Lions pricing shows a substantial difference between Polymarket and US sportsbooks in RG’s November 5 comparison of Super Bowl LXI markets. Detroit is priced at plus 2400 on Polymarket, versus plus 1600 to plus 1800 at the sportsbooks, according to RG.

Detroit stands out in the comparison

Those prices put Detroit at 4.0 percent on Polymarket, compared with 5.3 to 5.9 percent at the books. That represents a difference of 1.3 to 1.9 percentage points between the two sets of implied probabilities.

According to RG, Detroit has the largest pricing gap for a winning team on its Super Bowl board. The comparison places the Lions’ championship probability lower on Polymarket than at the US sportsbooks surveyed.

San Francisco prices remain close

San Francisco leads both boards at about 14 percent, according to RG. Polymarket prices San Francisco at plus 604, while the books have it at plus 600.

That near-alignment contrasts with Detroit’s wider spread. The supplied comparison, published Nov 5, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET, does not explain what accounts for the difference in the Lions’ pricing.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Detroit is the clearest divergence identified: RG’s comparison puts its Polymarket probability below the sportsbook range by 1.3 to 1.9 percentage points.
  • The leader draws similar assessments: San Francisco’s roughly 14 percent probability on both boards shows that the pricing disagreement does not extend equally to every team.
  • The figures are a snapshot: The supplied material establishes a difference between venues, not its cause or whether it will persist.
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Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    RGrg.org
    Publisher
    https://rg.org
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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