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Crypto draws $210 million as short-window prediction markets drive repeat trading

DeFi Rate's crypto page on October 31 puts Kalshi crypto volume up 17 percent against the prior 30 days, with 15-minute markets settling 96 times a day. Bitcoin finished up in 49 of its last 96 windows and in 627 of its last 1,287 windows over 14 days.

Crypto contracts generated $210 million in trading over 24 hours, representing about 21 percent of all prediction-market volume, according to DeFi Rate. The figures put crypto at roughly a fifth of activity in the reported period.

Kalshi volume rises as contracts settle frequently

DeFi Rate’s crypto page on October 31 showed Kalshi crypto volume up 17 percent against the prior 30 days. That comparison provides a separate measure of activity from the broader 24-hour crypto trading total.

The page also highlighted 15-minute markets that settle 96 times a day. That frequency is important context for reading volume: these contracts offer repeated settlement cycles rather than a single outcome over a longer period.

Bitcoin’s window results remain close to evenly split

Bitcoin finished higher in 49 of its last 96 windows, according to DeFi Rate. Over the longer 14-day sample, it finished higher in 627 of its last 1,287 windows.

The shorter sample therefore had slightly more upward finishes than other outcomes, while upward finishes accounted for slightly less than half of the longer sample. Neither count, by itself, establishes the probability of the next window finishing higher.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Activity and outcomes measure different things: The $210 million volume figure and roughly 21 percent share describe trading activity, not the likelihood of a particular crypto price move.
  • Settlement frequency matters: With 15-minute markets resolving 96 times daily, aggregate volume should be read alongside the number of opportunities to trade and settle.
  • The observation period changes the picture: Bitcoin’s 49 upward finishes in 96 windows and 627 in 1,287 windows fall on opposite sides of half, underscoring the importance of specifying the sample.
KalshiBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
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