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Oil sells off as diplomacy hopes clash with Iran attack expectations

DailyForex reports WTI crude fell 7.36 percent to settle at 96.46 dollars, its biggest daily loss since July, and Brent dropped 7.63 percent to 104.77 dollars as hopes of US-Iran diplomacy cut the post-election war premium. DailyForex notes Polymarket sees a US and/or Israeli assault on Iran as probable by the end of November, while gold slipped about 0.5 percent to 3,926.52 dollars in Asian trading.

Crude prices fell sharply as hopes for US-Iran diplomacy reduced the post-election war premium, according to DailyForex. The retreat contrasted with Polymarket pricing that still indicated a US and/or Israeli assault on Iran was probable by the end of November.

Crude retreats alongside gold

WTI crude declined 7.36 percent to settle at 96.46 dollars, its largest daily loss since July, DailyForex reported. Brent fell 7.63 percent to 104.77 dollars.

Gold also moved lower, slipping about 0.5 percent to 3,926.52 dollars in Asian trading, according to the outlet.

Different signals on Iran risk

The DailyForex account, published Nov 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, places the oil selloff against renewed hopes for diplomacy between the US and Iran. Its summary does not provide an exact probability for the Polymarket assault contract.

The contrast is important but not necessarily contradictory: oil’s war premium and a prediction contract’s probability of an assault measure different things. The supplied reporting does not establish how much of the remaining crude price reflects conflict risk.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The deadline matters: The reported Polymarket expectation concerns a US and/or Israeli assault on Iran by the end of November, not an open-ended conflict forecast.
  • Precision is limited: DailyForex describes an assault as probable, but the supplied material gives neither an exact market probability nor contract-resolution terms.
  • Cross-market signals differ: Oil declined as diplomacy hopes reduced the war premium, while the reported prediction-market assessment continued to favor an assault occurring.
PolymarketGoldOilElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    DailyForex
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