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Iran invasion contract leads tracked markets by volume at $78.3 million

World Monitor tracks 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets on geopolitics, economics and technology, with 212.2 million dollars traded across the tracked set as of November 6. The next-largest tracked markets include Ethereum dipping to 1,500 dollars by December 31 at 11.6 percent with 19.5 million dollars traded.

A Polymarket contract on whether the US will invade Iran before 2027 was the most heavily traded market in World Monitor’s tracked set as of November 6. The contract stood at 11.5 percent, with $78.3 million traded, according to World Monitor.

Trading volume and implied probability

The figures put the Iran contract at the top of the tracked markets by trading volume, not by its assessed likelihood. Its 11.5 percent reading is a separate measure from the amount traded.

World Monitor tracks 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi covering geopolitics, economics and technology. Trading across that set totaled $212.2 million as of November 6, according to the outlet.

Ethereum contract among the next largest

Among the next-largest tracked markets was a contract on Ethereum dipping to $1,500 by December 31. It stood at 11.6 percent, with $19.5 million traded, according to World Monitor.

The Ethereum and Iran contracts therefore had similar probability readings but substantially different trading volumes. World Monitor’s update was published on Nov 6, 2026, at 7:30 PM ET; the rankings describe its tracked set rather than the entire prediction-market universe.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Volume is not likelihood: The Iran contract led the tracked set in trading while standing at 11.5 percent.
  • Scope matters: The $212.2 million total covers 50 selected Polymarket and Kalshi markets, not all activity on either platform.
  • Similar readings can mask different activity: The Ethereum contract’s 11.6 percent reading was close to the Iran contract’s, but its $19.5 million trading total was much smaller.
KalshiPolymarketEthereumInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    World Monitor
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