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Iran invasion contract leads tracked trading despite low implied probability

World Monitor reports the Polymarket contract on a United States invasion of Iran before 2027 is the most traded of 50 tracked Polymarket and Kalshi markets, priced at 10.5 percent with 78.4 million dollars traded. The 50 tracked markets have drawn 223.4 million dollars in combined volume.

According to World Monitor, a Polymarket contract asking whether the United States will invade Iran before 2027 leads trading volume among 50 tracked markets across Polymarket and Kalshi.

The contract was priced at 10.5 percent, with 78.4 million dollars traded, in the update published Nov 8, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET.

Heavy turnover, low probability

The 50 tracked markets have generated 223.4 million dollars in combined volume, according to World Monitor. The Iran invasion contract therefore accounts for a substantial portion of activity within that group.

Its trading lead contrasts with its price: the most actively traded contract in the tracked set still assigns a relatively low implied probability to a United States invasion of Iran before 2027. Volume measures activity, not agreement that the event will occur.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The ranking has a defined scope: The contract leads the 50 markets tracked by World Monitor, not necessarily every market on Polymarket and Kalshi.
  • Price and turnover tell different stories: The 10.5 percent price reflects implied probability, while 78.4 million dollars in volume reflects trading activity.
  • The deadline matters: The contract concerns an invasion before 2027, rather than the prospect of an invasion without a time limit.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    World Monitor
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