Terminal
Infiniti Feed

Polymarket Iran invasion contract leads geopolitical board with $78.1 million traded

The invasion contract is the most traded market on World Monitor's geopolitics board, priced at 11.5 percent with 78.1 million dollars in total volume ahead of its January 1, 2027 resolution.

A Polymarket contract on whether the United States will invade Iran before 2027 is priced at 11.5 percent, according to World Monitor. Total trading volume stands at $78.1 million.

Trading activity and deadline

The contract is the most traded market on World Monitor’s geopolitics board. That ranking describes its position on that board, not across all Polymarket contracts.

The figures were reported on Nov 6, 2026, at 1:30 PM ET, ahead of the contract’s January 1, 2027 resolution.

Price and volume tell different stories

The reported price puts an invasion on the lower-probability side of the market’s outcomes, despite the contract’s leading trading volume on the board. Volume measures trading activity; it does not by itself indicate that traders consider an invasion likely.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Probability versus attention: The 11.5 percent price and $78.1 million in volume reflect different dimensions of the contract: outcome pricing and trading activity.
  • Defined time horizon: The question concerns an invasion before 2027, with resolution scheduled for January 1, 2027.
  • Limited supporting detail: The supplied summary does not include resolution criteria or price history, so it does not establish what would qualify as an invasion or whether the price has recently moved.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    World Monitor
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to World Monitor”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.

Related