December Fed hike probability reaches 77 percent after sharp repricing
ProbCast scores the December Fed hike contract as a confirmed move, up 12 points over 24 hours to 77 percent with about 1.3 million dollars in 24-hour volume and cross-venue agreement behind the repricing.
The Polymarket contract on a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate increase after the December 2026 meeting reached 77 percent, up 12 points over 24 hours, according to ProbCast.
The update, published Nov 6, 2026 at 1:30 PM ET, describes a shift toward a higher market-implied likelihood of that specific policy outcome—not confirmation of a Federal Reserve decision.
Volume and cross-venue agreement
ProbCast classified the repricing as a confirmed move. The contract recorded about 1.3 million dollars in 24-hour volume, with agreement across venues supporting that assessment.
The supplied summary does not identify those other venues or provide their individual probabilities. It also offers no explanation for what prompted the change, limiting conclusions about the forces behind the repricing.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 12-point increase puts the contract at 77 percent, indicating a stronger market-implied expectation of a 25 basis point increase after the December 2026 meeting.
- About 1.3 million dollars in 24-hour volume and reported cross-venue agreement provide context for ProbCast’s classification of the move.
- A confirmed market move is distinct from a confirmed policy outcome; the reported probability still leaves uncertainty about the contract’s eventual resolution.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- ProbCast
- Publisher
- The publisher did not list a web address.
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to ProbCast”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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