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Kalshi traders assign 27.5 percent chance to P versus NP resolution

The contract traded 657 contracts in 24 hours on Kalshi. It settles on an official resolution of P versus NP, one of the Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problems, before 2030.

A Kalshi contract on whether the P versus NP problem will be resolved before 2030 was priced at 27.5 percent, according to BotForKalshi.

The update, published Nov 5, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET, put trading volume at 657 contracts over 24 hours.

A deadline for a mathematical breakthrough

P versus NP is one of the Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problems. The contract settles on an official resolution before 2030, according to the supplied summary.

That makes both the outcome and its timing central to the market. The 27.5 percent price reflects the contract’s deadline-bound proposition, rather than whether the problem will eventually be resolved.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Resolution criteria matter: The stated trigger is an official resolution of P versus NP before 2030. The summary does not provide further details about how official status would be determined.
  • Volume offers limited context: The 657 contracts traded in 24 hours establish activity, but the supplied material contains no earlier prices or volumes for comparison.
  • Price is not evidence of a breakthrough: The reported 27.5 percent is a market reading; the supplied material identifies no mathematical development behind it.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    BotForKalshi
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
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