Polymarket pricing approaches certainty on November Bank of Mexico rate cut

A Polymarket contract tied to the Bank of Mexico cutting interest rates by 25 basis points after its November meeting reached 99.9 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. The contract rose 77 points in the reported snapshot.

Cut contract leads the board

PredictionBubbles identified the cut contract as the board’s biggest mover ahead of the November decision. The report was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 4:30 PM ET.

Trading in the contract totaled 199,000 dollars. That figure accompanies the sharp repricing but does not, on its own, explain what drove the move.

No-change pricing falls

The companion contract for an unchanged rate fell to 0.1 percent in the same snapshot, according to PredictionBubbles. The two readings show pricing overwhelmingly favoring the 25-basis-point cut over no change.

The supplied summary does not identify a policy announcement or other catalyst behind the shift. It describes market positioning ahead of the decision, not a confirmed Bank of Mexico outcome.

What it means for prediction markets

• The 77-point rise marks a substantial shift toward the cut outcome, with the contract reaching 99.9 percent.
• The companion no-change contract’s 0.1 percent reading leaves very little probability priced into that alternative.
• The reported 199,000 dollars traded provides activity context, but the summary offers no explanation for the repricing or evidence confirming the eventual decision.