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Hormuz normalization odds sit at 10.5 percent amid heavy trading

World Monitor lists the Hormuz traffic contract as the third most traded in its tracker, closing January 1, 2027. Related Iran airspace closure pricing sits at 20 percent on 11.0 million dollars traded.

A Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 is priced at 10.5 percent, according to World Monitor. The contract has drawn 16.8 million dollars in trading.

Traffic contract ranks third

World Monitor lists the Hormuz contract as the third most traded in its tracker. The figures were reported on Nov 5, 2026, at 1:45 PM ET.

The contract closes January 1, 2027. That closing date is distinct from the December 31 deadline for traffic normalization described in the contract.

Related Iran market

Related pricing for an Iran airspace closure stands at 20 percent, with 11.0 million dollars traded, according to World Monitor.

The airspace contract therefore carries a higher price but less trading volume than the Hormuz contract. The supplied summary does not specify the airspace contract’s deadline or provide the full resolution criteria for either market.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 10.5 percent price reflects low market-implied odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, rather than a certain outcome.
  • Trading of 16.8 million dollars and third place in World Monitor’s tracker indicate substantial activity, but do not establish forecast accuracy.
  • The Iran airspace price offers a related comparison, not an equivalent forecast: the contracts concern different events, and the supplied material does not establish matching timeframes.
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    World Monitor
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