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Polymarket puts Putin exit probability at 1.8 percent before year-end

The contract on Putin being out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026 is priced at 1.8 percent on Polymarket. The price is up 0.1 points over 24 hours, with 27.8 million dollars traded in total.

A Polymarket contract on Putin being out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026 is priced at 1.8 percent, according to PredictionBubbles.

The update, published Nov 8, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET, places the market-implied probability of that outcome near the bottom of the probability range.

A small move against substantial turnover

The contract’s price rose 0.1 percentage points over 24 hours. That represents a modest upward shift, while leaving the implied likelihood low.

Total trading volume stood at 27.8 million dollars, according to PredictionBubbles. That figure measures cumulative turnover, not the amount traded during the latest 24-hour period.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Low implied likelihood: The 1.8 percent price indicates that the market assigns a small probability to Putin being out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026.
  • Limited movement: The 0.1-percentage-point daily increase does not substantially change that assessment.
  • Volume is not conviction: The 27.8 million dollars in total trading does not, by itself, establish why the price moved or how many traders share the market’s assessment.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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