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Israel strike contract draws $7.8 million as traders assess 2026 outcome

World Monitor tracks 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets on geopolitics, economics and technology in its live reading on November 7, and lists the contract among the 15 most traded, closing January 1, 2027.

According to World Monitor’s November 7 live reading, a Polymarket contract on Israel striking 4 countries in 2026 was priced at 79.3 percent, with 7.8 million dollars traded.

Contract ranks among the most traded

World Monitor lists the contract among the 15 most traded in its monitored group. That places it within the more actively traded portion of the outlet’s coverage, though the supplied summary does not give its exact rank.

The live reading tracks 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi, covering geopolitics, economics and technology. The Israel contract is on Polymarket; the summary does not identify a corresponding Kalshi market.

Closing date extends beyond the named year

The contract closes January 1, 2027, according to World Monitor. Its subject concerns events in 2026, but the supplied material does not include the contract’s detailed resolution criteria.

The report was published November 7, 2026, at 6:45 PM ET. The 79.3 percent price is a snapshot from that reading, not confirmation of the outcome.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Pricing: The reported 79.3 percent level captures the contract’s market assessment at the time of the reading, rather than a settled result.
  • Activity: Trading of 7.8 million dollars and inclusion among the 15 most traded establish its prominence within World Monitor’s 50-market coverage.
  • Resolution: The January 1, 2027 closing date is specified, but the summary does not explain what qualifies as a strike or how countries are counted.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    World Monitor
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