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Israel strike contract draws $7.8 million as year-end deadline approaches

World Monitor ranks the contract among the 15 most traded geopolitics, economics and technology markets it tracks on Polymarket and Kalshi in its November 5 live reading. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

A Polymarket contract on Israel striking 4 countries in 2026 was priced at 78.5 percent, with $7.8 million traded, according to World Monitor’s November 5 live reading.

Position among tracked markets

World Monitor placed the contract among the 15 most traded markets in its tracked set spanning geopolitics, economics and technology on Polymarket and Kalshi. That ranking describes the outlet’s monitored selection, rather than every contract on either platform.

The supplied report was published on Nov 5, 2026, at 9:15 AM ET. Its price and trading figure provide a snapshot at that point, not a final outcome.

Closing date and information limits

The market closes on January 1, 2027. While the contract concerns events in 2026, the supplied material does not include its detailed resolution criteria or explain how qualifying strikes and countries are counted.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Pricing: The 78.5 percent reading shows the contract priced toward the event occurring; it does not establish that the outcome has happened.
  • Activity: The $7.8 million traded and top-15 placement indicate substantial activity within World Monitor’s tracked selection, but do not reveal current liquidity.
  • Resolution: The January 1, 2027 closing date is specified, but the missing settlement rules limit any assessment of which events would qualify.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    World Monitor
    Publisher
    The publisher did not list a web address.
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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