Polymarket prices later crude record deadline at 18 percent

According to Alpha Finance, a Polymarket contract on crude oil reaching an all-time high by March 31, 2027 is priced at 18 percent, with 5.6 million dollars traded.

The figures appeared in an update published Nov 5, 2026 at 6:45 AM ET, placing the contract among the commodity markets drawing substantial trading activity on the outlet’s board.

Two deadlines, different prices

The December 31, 2026 outcome in the same market is priced at 8 percent, according to Alpha Finance. That puts it 10 percentage points below the March 31, 2027 outcome.

The pricing gives the later deadline a higher implied likelihood, while both outcomes remain below 50 percent. The supplied summary does not include earlier prices, so it does not establish whether either outcome has gained or lost ground.

Trading volume and available detail

Alpha Finance lists the contract among the largest commodity markets on its Polymarket board by total volume. The summary does not specify its exact ranking.

It also does not identify the crude benchmark, the record price that must be exceeded or the contract’s resolution criteria. Those omissions limit how precisely readers can interpret the event being priced.

What it means for prediction markets

• Deadline matters: The 18 percent price for March 31, 2027 compares with 8 percent for December 31, 2026—a 10-percentage-point gap between the outcomes.
• Volume is not direction: The reported 5.6 million dollars traded establishes activity, but does not by itself show a shift toward or away from a record-high outcome.
• Resolution details remain important: The summary lacks the benchmark and settlement rules needed to assess exactly what would qualify as an all-time high.