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Taiwan invasion contract draws $45.8 million despite low implied probability

The Taiwan contract is among the largest geopolitics markets on the PredictionBubbles board by total volume. It resolves at the end of 2026.

A Polymarket contract on China invading Taiwan by the end of 2026 is priced at 1.6 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. Total trading volume stands at $45.8 million.

The figures were published on Nov 6, 2026, at 7:00 AM ET. They pair a low market-implied probability with substantial cumulative trading activity.

Volume and resolution timing

According to PredictionBubbles, the Taiwan contract ranks among the largest geopolitics markets on its board by total volume. The summary does not provide its exact ranking or comparable contracts’ volumes.

The contract resolves at the end of 2026. The supplied material does not include detailed resolution criteria or a price history, limiting what can be inferred about how traders’ expectations have changed.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Price and volume measure different things: The 1.6 percent price reflects market-implied probability, while the $45.8 million figure records total trading activity—not confidence in an invasion occurring.
  • The deadline defines the forecast: This contract concerns China invading Taiwan by the end of 2026, rather than the likelihood over a longer horizon.
  • Resolution details remain important: Without the full criteria, the summary alone does not establish precisely what events would qualify for settlement.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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