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Bitcoin downside odds retreat as price recovers above $80,000

The contract has traded 1.5 million dollars on Polymarket and ranked among the biggest crypto movers over the last 24 hours on the PredictionBubbles board. Other Bitcoin downside contracts for November also moved lower as Bitcoin traded back above 80,000 dollars.

The Polymarket contract on Bitcoin falling to $70,000 by December 31, 2026 dropped 19 percentage points to 29.5%, according to PredictionBubbles.

The update, published Nov 4, 2026 at 9:45 PM ET, put the contract among the largest crypto-market movers over the preceding 24 hours on the PredictionBubbles board.

Downside contracts move lower

The contract has recorded $1.5 million in trading volume on Polymarket, according to PredictionBubbles. That figure measures trading activity, rather than the likelihood of the price threshold being reached.

Other contracts tied to Bitcoin downside in November also declined as Bitcoin traded back above $80,000. The supplied summary does not identify their individual thresholds, probabilities or sizes of decline.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 19-percentage-point decline marks a substantial repricing of the $70,000 downside outcome, with the contract now at 29.5%.
  • Lower readings across November downside contracts suggest the shift was not confined to the December 31, 2026 contract.
  • Bitcoin’s recovery above $80,000 coincided with those moves, but the available reporting does not establish what caused the repricing.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
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