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Kalshi traders price low odds for Anthropic’s Mythos release deadlines

The contract on Anthropic releasing Mythos before January 1, 2027 trades at 3 percent on Kalshi after falling 4 points, with 314,000 dollars in total volume. A separate Kalshi contract on a Mythos release before December 1, 2026 is priced at 5 percent with 230,000 dollars traded.

January deadline contract declines

The Kalshi contract tracking whether Anthropic releases Mythos before January 1, 2027 is trading at 3 percent after a 4-point decline, according to PredictionBubbles.

Total trading volume in that contract stands at 314,000 dollars. The figures were reported on Nov 5, 2026 at 1:15 PM ET.

Earlier deadline carries a higher price

A separate Kalshi contract covering a Mythos release before December 1, 2026 is priced at 5 percent, according to PredictionBubbles. That market has recorded 230,000 dollars in trading volume.

The earlier-deadline contract is therefore priced above the later-deadline contract, despite allowing less time for a release. The supplied report does not include contract rules or trading details that would explain that difference, nor does it identify a cause for the January contract’s decline.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Both contracts assign low market-implied probabilities to a Mythos release within their respective windows.
  • The January 1, 2027 contract has more total trading volume, but a lower price, than the December 1, 2026 contract.
  • The difference between the deadline prices warrants caution in interpreting them as a consistent release timeline; the provided information does not establish why they diverge.
KalshiInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
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    https://predictionbubbles.com
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