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U.S.–Iran ceasefire market slips to 37.5 percent ahead of November deadline

The ceasefire contract opened a day ago and has traded 122,000 dollars while falling 5 points to 37.5 percent. It covers whether the effective ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran continues through November 30, 2026.

A Polymarket contract tracking whether the effective ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran continues through November 30, 2026 has fallen 5 points to 37.5 percent, according to PredictionBubbles.

The update, published on Nov 5, 2026 at 4:15 PM ET, puts the contract below the halfway mark for the ceasefire lasting through its stated deadline.

Early trading marks down ceasefire outlook

The contract opened a day ago and has recorded 122,000 dollars in trading, according to PredictionBubbles. The reported decline therefore comes within a short trading history.

The supplied summary does not identify a cause for the move or describe any diplomatic or military developments. It also does not provide detailed resolution criteria beyond whether the effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 37.5 percent price reflects market pricing for this specific ceasefire-continuation outcome, not confirmation that the ceasefire will end.
  • The 5-point decline indicates a downward repricing, but the supplied information does not establish what drove it.
  • With the contract only a day old, the 122,000 dollars traded provides an early measure of activity rather than a longer-term trading record.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
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    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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