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Polymarket gives year-end Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement a 15.5 percent chance

The contract on a Russia and Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026 is priced at 15.5 percent on Polymarket. The market has traded 10.6 million dollars in total and closes on January 1, 2027, ranking among the most traded markets tracked by World Monitor.

A Polymarket contract on whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026 is priced at 15.5 percent, according to World Monitor. The price places an agreement by that deadline as the less likely outcome.

Trading activity and timing

The market has recorded 10.6 million dollars in total trading volume. World Monitor ranks it among the most traded markets it tracks, though the supplied summary does not give its exact position.

The pricing snapshot was published on Nov 8, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET. It offers a single observation, with no earlier prices provided to establish whether expectations have risen or fallen.

The contract closes on January 1, 2027, while the deadline for the ceasefire agreement is December 31, 2026. Those dates serve different purposes: one marks the market’s close, and the other defines the event’s time limit.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 15.5 percent price reflects a low market-implied likelihood of an agreement within the specified period, not a confirmed diplomatic outcome.
  • The 10.6 million dollars traded indicates substantial cumulative activity, but the summary provides no detail on current liquidity or recent trading flows.
  • The supplied material does not include the contract’s full resolution rules, leaving the precise criteria for a qualifying ceasefire agreement unspecified.
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Sources & attribution

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    World Monitor
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