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NATO–Russia clash contract draws $13.2 million in trading on Polymarket

World Monitor lists the contract among the 15 most traded of the 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets it tracks, with 324.1 million dollars traded across all tracked markets. The clash contract is scheduled to resolve around January 1, 2027.

A Polymarket contract on a military clash between NATO and Russia by December 31, 2026 is priced at 12.5 percent, according to World Monitor. Trading volume in the contract stands at 13.2 million dollars.

Position among tracked markets

World Monitor places the clash contract among the 15 most traded markets in its coverage. Its tracking encompasses 50 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi.

Total trading volume across those tracked markets is 324.1 million dollars, according to World Monitor. That aggregate covers the full tracked group, rather than the NATO–Russia contract alone.

Deadline and resolution

The figures appeared in an update published November 5, 2026 at 3:30 AM ET. The contract’s event deadline is December 31, 2026, with resolution scheduled around January 1, 2027.

The supplied summary does not include the contract’s detailed resolution criteria. It therefore leaves unspecified what would qualify as a military clash for settlement purposes.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 12.5 percent price is a market reading for the specified deadline, not confirmation that a clash will occur.
  • The 13.2 million dollars in volume and top-15 ranking establish the contract’s prominence within World Monitor’s tracked set, not across all prediction markets.
  • The event deadline and expected resolution date are distinct. Settlement analysis would require the detailed criteria absent from the supplied summary.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
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    World Monitor
    Publisher
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