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December Fed hike leads market pricing as Bitcoin year-end band gains

Rivo, updated at 4:44 PM ET on November 4, prices a 25 basis point Fed hike at the December 2026 meeting at 81 percent on Kalshi and 78 percent on Polymarket, with no change at 21 percent and 22 percent and a 25 basis point cut at 1 percent on both. Rivo also prices Bitcoin closing 2026 in the 80,000 to 85,000 dollar band at 18 percent on Kalshi, up 3 points in 24 hours.

According to Rivo, a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate increase at the December 2026 meeting was priced at 81 percent on Kalshi and 78 percent on Polymarket.

Rivo’s figures were updated at 4:44 PM ET on November 4. The supplied report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 6:15 PM ET.

Rate increase outweighs unchanged-rate and cut outcomes

The no-change outcome stood at 21 percent on Kalshi and 22 percent on Polymarket, according to Rivo. A 25 basis point reduction was priced at 1 percent on both platforms.

The reported hike pricing differed by 3 percentage points between the two venues. Across the three listed outcomes, the figures total 103 percent on Kalshi and 101 percent on Polymarket, rather than forming a distribution that sums to 100 percent.

Bitcoin band rises over 24 hours

Separately, Rivo put the Kalshi price for Bitcoin closing 2026 in the 80,000 to 85,000 dollar band at 18 percent. That was up 3 points in 24 hours; the supplied summary included no corresponding Polymarket figure.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A 25 basis point December hike was the leading outcome among those listed on both platforms, with Kalshi pricing it higher than Polymarket.
  • The reported rate-outcome totals exceed 100 percent, so readers should distinguish these individual prices from a normalized probability distribution.
  • Bitcoin’s reported move concerns one year-end price band. Without prices for other bands, it does not establish how the broader year-end distribution changed.
KalshiPolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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  1. Source
    Rivo
    Publisher
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