Clarity Act signed into law in 2026 priced at just 6.2% on $24.0M on Polymarket

Low odds, substantial turnover

Polymarket traders put the probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 at 6.2%, with $24.0M traded, in the supplied snapshot published Oct 13, 2026 at 10:09 PM ET. The crypto-legislation contract was up 0.1 percentage points, a small move that left enactment this year priced as unlikely.

The legislation price had not appeared in any earlier edition that day, according to the supplied summary. That makes it a new inclusion in the day’s coverage, not evidence that the contract itself had just opened.

What the figures establish

According to predictionbubbles.net, its market dashboard measures probability changes over 24 hours in percentage points and defines traded volume as cumulative turnover. The $24.0M figure therefore does not represent money traded that day, current order-book liquidity or the value of positions still open.

The supplied material does not identify a legislative development behind the move or provide the contract’s detailed settlement terms. Its clearest signal is the combination of a low market-implied probability, a marginal upward adjustment and substantial cumulative trading—not an explanation for why traders assigned those odds.

What it means for prediction markets

• The deadline matters: The question concerns signing into law in 2026, rather than eventual enactment.
• Movement was limited: A gain of 0.1 percentage points left the contract at 6.2%; it did not amount to a major repricing.
• Turnover is not certainty: The $24.0M traded records activity, not proof that the price is accurate or that comparable liquidity is available now.