Kalshi prices an October Fed hold at 79% ahead of Wednesday's CPI

A hold leads, but the snapshots differ

Leaving rates unchanged is the favored outcome for the Oct 27–28, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, according to predictionmarketspicks.com. Its October 13, 2026 summary assigns Kalshi’s KXFED ladder probabilities of 77% for a hold, 22% for a hike and 1% for a cut.

Those figures differ from the 79% hold probability in the supplied headline, published Oct 13, 2026 at 10:24 PM ET ahead of Wednesday’s CPI. The tracker carries an Oct 13, 10:00 PM ET update stamp, while its daily-close table records an October 13 hold probability of 80.5%. The material does not reconcile those readings, so they should not be presented as a single consistent snapshot.

Inflation remains the key test

The tracker’s historical series shows a substantial shift toward a pause. Kalshi’s hold probability rose from 29.0% on September 28 to 84.5% on October 8, before reaching 80.5% on October 13. That repricing followed the September 15–16, 2026 meeting, when the Fed delivered a 25bp hike, according to predictionmarketspicks.com.

The outlet identifies core CPI of 0.2% month over month or less, easing energy prices and signals of patience from the chair as factors supporting a hold. It presents another core CPI reading of 0.3% month over month or higher, continued energy-driven inflation, and payroll growth of 150K+ with flat unemployment as factors supporting further tightening. These are scenarios, not reported results from the forthcoming release.

Comparing the venues

For October 13, the daily-close table puts both Kalshi and Polymarket at 80.5% for a hold, against 78.0% for the futures-derived probability—a 2.5 percentage-point spread. Separately, the tracker’s summary reports a 3.0 percentage-point difference on the leading outcome and a maximum gap of 3.5 percentage points on a 25bp hike between Kalshi and futures.

The comparisons also carry methodological limits. According to predictionmarketspicks.com, its Polymarket figures come from the international book, not the separate Polymarket US exchange. Its CME fed funds futures probabilities use the published FedWatch methodology, anchored to the daily effective fed funds rate; the tracker’s conversion into cut, hold and hike outcomes cannot represent a 50bp move, which is marked unavailable rather than assigned 0%.

What it means for prediction markets

• The dominant uncertainty is hold versus hike. In the tracker’s summary, cuts account for only 1%, compared with 22% for further tightening.
• CPI provides a test of the pause narrative. The tracker’s inflation scenarios frame what could reinforce or challenge the leading outcome; they are not automatic repricing rules.
• Timestamps matter. The headline, summary and daily-close table contain different hold probabilities, limiting precise claims about the latest price or immediate market move.
• Venue gaps need context. International versus US order books and the futures conversion’s treatment of 50bp outcomes matter when comparing probabilities.