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Polymarket puts low odds on CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026

PolymarketTrader, updated October 31, prices the market on the CLARITY Act, H.R. 3633, being signed into law in 2026 at 3.1 percent yes, with 31,900 dollars in 24 hour volume in its snapshot. The crypto market structure bill would divide oversight between the SEC and the CFTC.

A low probability for enactment

The Polymarket contract on whether the CLARITY Act, H.R. 3633, will be signed into law in 2026 stood at 3.1 percent yes in an October 31 update, according to PolymarketTrader.

The snapshot recorded 31,900 dollars in 24 hour volume. The supplied report was published on Oct 31, 2026 at 7:45 PM ET.

The legislative question

The CLARITY Act is a crypto market structure bill that would divide oversight between the SEC and the CFTC, according to PolymarketTrader.

The contract’s stated question concerns enactment in 2026, rather than an intermediate legislative step. Its 3.1 percent yes price indicates a low market-implied probability for that outcome in the reported snapshot; it does not establish whether the bill will become law.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Timing defines the outcome: The question is whether H.R. 3633 is signed into law in 2026, not whether it eventually becomes law.
  • The price is a snapshot: The supplied material gives an October 31 reading, with no earlier prices to establish a trend.
  • Volume adds limited context: The reported 31,900 dollars in 24 hour volume measures trading activity, not the likelihood of enactment independently of the price.
PolymarketSECCFTCInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
    Publisher
    https://polymarket.com
    Source URL
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