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Netanyahu reaches 43 percent as Polymarket election contract gains ground

The DeFi Rate biggest-movers board for the week to October 31 shows Netanyahu climbing from 28 percent to 43 percent on Polymarket. It was the fourth-largest seven-day move on the board, behind Andrew Novak, the Senate swing-states market and Byron Donalds.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s probability of being Prime Minister of Israel after the next election rose to 43 percent on Polymarket, according to DeFi Rate’s biggest-movers board for the week to October 31.

The contract was at 28 percent seven days earlier, putting the increase at 15 percentage points. The supplied report was published on Oct 31, 2026, at 8:30 PM ET.

Fourth-largest weekly move

Netanyahu’s rise ranked fourth among the board’s seven-day moves, according to DeFi Rate. Andrew Novak, the Senate swing-states market and Byron Donalds ranked ahead of it.

The summary provides no explanation for the change or figures for those three higher-ranked entries. It establishes the scale and ranking of Netanyahu’s move, but not what drove the repricing.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A sizable shift, not a majority probability: The move from 28 percent to 43 percent increased Netanyahu’s implied chances while leaving them below 50 percent.
  • The outcome is specific: The contract concerns who will be Prime Minister of Israel after the next election, rather than a party’s vote share or seat total.
  • The ranking has limits: Fourth place describes Netanyahu’s move relative to entries on DeFi Rate’s board; the supplied summary does not establish a ranking across all prediction markets.
PolymarketSenateElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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