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Taiwan invasion contract trades at 2 cents on Polymarket

PicksByOdds reports its October 31 board prices China invading Taiwan by the end of 2026 at 2 cents on Polymarket, down 0.2 points, with 45,443,207 dollars in volume. The contract is the ninth-largest market by volume on the board, behind the US invade Iran before 2027 market at 17 cents.

According to PicksByOdds, its October 31 board shows Polymarket’s contract on China invading Taiwan by the end of 2026 at 2 cents, down 0.2 points.

The update, published Oct 31, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET, lists 45,443,207 dollars in volume for the contract.

Volume ranking and price comparison

The Taiwan invasion contract ranks ninth by volume among markets on the PicksByOdds board. That places it behind the market on whether the US will invade Iran before 2027.

The US–Iran contract is priced at 17 cents, according to PicksByOdds. The two contracts therefore show different pricing for their respective invasion scenarios, although the supplied summary does not explain the movement in the Taiwan contract.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 2-cent price indicates a low market-implied likelihood for China invading Taiwan by the end of 2026, not a definitive forecast.
  • The decline of 0.2 points puts the latest price below its prior level; the summary does not specify the comparison period.
  • Volume of 45,443,207 dollars and a ninth-place ranking establish the contract’s relative trading prominence on this board, but do not by themselves explain traders’ expectations.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PicksByOdds
    Publisher
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