Georgia governor's race is a market toss-up as early voting opens: Jackson 55c, Bottoms 46c on Kalshi

Georgia’s open-seat governor’s race is rated a toss-up as early voting opens, with Kalshi yes-ask prices at 55¢ for Republican Rick Jackson and 46¢ for Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms. According to elections.ftpadvocacy.com, the quotes were checked at 7:08 PM ET on October 13, 2026.

A close market with a Republican edge

The outlet’s Signal rates the contest Toss-up and identifies Bottoms as the Democratic nominee and challenger. Her market price has fallen 13¢ since July 31, although the current quotes still indicate a competitive race.

Across 49 daily readings from July 31 to October 13, the tracker recorded a high of 61¢ and a low of 45¢. It lists 1,367,354 traded and 803,765 open.

Polling, fundraising and contract terms

According to elections.ftpadvocacy.com, Jackson leads the polling average by 1.8 points. That average draws on 5 pollsters covering September 14 to October 3. Jackson also holds a 20.5-to-1 advantage in money raised.

The seat was won by Brian Kemp in the 2022 general election. For this open-seat contest, the contract’s resolution depends on whether a Democrat holds the seat—not whether Keisha Lance Bottoms wins by name.

What it means for prediction markets

• The quotes are asks, not a normalized forecast. Jackson’s 55¢ and Bottoms’ 46¢ are yes-ask prices, so the two sides need not total 100¢.
• The indicators favor Jackson without removing uncertainty. His polling and fundraising leads sit alongside the tracker’s Toss-up rating.
• The resolution is party-based. The Democratic contract is tied to control of the seat rather than Bottoms individually.
• The latest snapshot is not evidence of a sudden move. The supplied editorial summary reports no significant new platform headline in the preceding 15 minutes; the 13¢ decline measures change since July 31.