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Democratic Senate odds climb as markets price in congressional control

Fintech TV reports contributor Errol Coleman, speaking from the Cboe trading floor on Election Day, put prediction market pricing at about 95 percent for Democrats to win the House and about 78 percent for the Senate, with a Democratic sweep of both chambers at about 77 percent. Coleman noted Senate expectations had risen by about 11 percent over the last week as the midterms got closer.

Prediction markets put Democrats at about 95 percent to win the House and about 78 percent to win the Senate on Election Day, according to Fintech TV contributor Errol Coleman, speaking from the Cboe trading floor.

The update, published Nov 3, 2026 · 6:45 PM ET, also placed the probability of Democrats winning both chambers at about 77 percent.

Senate expectations move higher

Coleman said Senate expectations had increased by about 11 percent over the last week as the midterms approached, according to Fintech TV. The supplied headline describes that change as about 11 points; the summary characterizes it as about 11 percent.

The reported pricing favored Democrats in both chambers, but the House probability was substantially higher. The sweep probability sat close to the Senate figure, making the Senate the more uncertain component of the two-chamber outcome.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The Senate is the key distinction: About 78 percent pricing for Senate control contrasted with about 95 percent for the House.
  • A sweep remained less certain than either individual win: The reported probability for both chambers was about 77 percent.
  • The weekly change needs clarification: An increase of about 11 percentage points differs from an increase of about 11 percent. The supplied material uses both descriptions.
  • These figures are a snapshot, not results: They reflect the Election Day pricing Coleman described on Fintech TV.
SenateElectionsInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Fintech TV
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