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California ballot pricing favors six measures, led by home-buyer loans

DeFi Rate reports Kalshi and Polymarket prices expect 6 of California's 14 propositions to pass on November 3, with Prop 37 on home-buyer loans the likeliest at 93 percent, Prop 44 on clinic spending the least likely at 4.8 percent, and Prop 41 on tax spending limits the closest measure at 44 percent.

Prediction-market prices suggest six of California’s 14 propositions will pass on November 3, according to DeFi Rate’s reporting on Kalshi and Polymarket.

The report, published Nov 3, 2026, at 4:15 PM ET, places home-buyer loans at the strongest end of the ballot outlook and clinic spending at the weakest.

Three measures frame the outlook

Prop 37, concerning home-buyer loans, has the highest implied probability of passage at 93 percent, according to DeFi Rate.

Prop 44, concerning clinic spending, has the lowest implied probability at 4.8 percent. Prop 41, concerning tax spending limits, is the closest measure at 44 percent, though its pricing still favors failure over passage.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The expectation that six measures will pass reflects market pricing, not confirmed election outcomes.
  • Prop 37 and Prop 44 sit at opposite ends of the reported probabilities, with passage strongly favored for the former and strongly disfavored for the latter.
  • Prop 41 is the most closely priced measure in the report, but its 44 percent probability remains below an even chance of passage.
KalshiPolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    DeFi Ratedefirate.com
    Publisher
    https://defirate.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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