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Polymarket probability of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 by December 31 slips to 27.5 percent

PredictionBubbles, reading Polymarket prices on October 31, prices Bitcoin reaching 90,000 dollars by December 31, 2026 at 27.5 percent, down 5.0 points in 24 hours. The market has traded 2.7 million dollars over its life, with 41,000 dollars in the last day, and resolves on January 1, 2027.

Polymarket’s implied probability of Bitcoin reaching 90,000 dollars by December 31, 2026 stood at 27.5 percent on October 31, according to PredictionBubbles. That represented a decline of 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.

Probability and trading activity

The figures, reported by PredictionBubbles on Oct 31, 2026 at 7:45 AM ET, show traders assigning a lower probability to the threshold being reached than a day earlier. The supplied report does not identify a cause for the move.

The market recorded 2.7 million dollars in lifetime trading volume, with 41,000 dollars traded during the last day, according to PredictionBubbles. Those figures distinguish the market’s cumulative activity from trading around the latest probability change.

Deadline and resolution

The contract concerns Bitcoin reaching 90,000 dollars by December 31, 2026, while its resolution date is January 1, 2027. The supplied material does not include the detailed rules for determining whether the threshold has been met.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Direction: The 5.0-percentage-point decline signals a lower market-implied likelihood over the past 24 hours, not a confirmed outcome.
  • Activity: Lifetime volume of 2.7 million dollars provides context, but the 41,000 dollars traded in the last day is the reported activity alongside the latest move.
  • Settlement: The December 31, 2026 deadline and January 1, 2027 resolution are distinct dates; the summary alone does not establish the contract’s full settlement criteria.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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