Polymarket gives Bitcoin’s $76,000–$78,000 range a 94.2% probability
PolymarketTrader reports the Bitcoin price on October 31 contract for the 76,000 to 78,000 dollar range is priced at 94.2 percent on Polymarket, up 48.4 points, with 88,100 dollars traded. The same board prices Bitcoin up or down on October 31 as up at 79.5 percent.
Polymarket’s contract for Bitcoin to finish in the $76,000–$78,000 range on October 31 was priced at 94.2%, according to PolymarketTrader.
The update, published on Oct 31, 2026 at 4:45 PM ET, put the contract’s increase at 48.4 points, with $88,100 traded.
Range and direction contracts
The same board priced the “up” outcome for Bitcoin’s October 31 up-or-down contract at 79.5%, according to PolymarketTrader.
The two prices concern different outcomes: one specifies a price range, while the other concerns direction. The supplied summary does not include the contracts’ settlement rules, the reference price for the directional outcome or the period over which the 48.4-point increase occurred.
What it means for prediction markets
- The 94.2% price indicates a strong market expectation for the $76,000–$78,000 outcome, not a confirmed settlement.
- The 48.4-point rise marks a substantial repricing, though the summary provides no explanation for the move.
- The 79.5% “up” price should be read separately from the range contract; without settlement details, the figures do not establish a contradiction.
Sources & attribution
- Published
- Source
- PolymarketTraderpolymarket.com
- Publisher
- https://polymarket.com
- Source URL
- The feed did not publish this story's article address.
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