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Polymarket odds shift toward Bitcoin’s $78,000 to $80,000 settlement band

Polymarket's Bitcoin price on November 1 market, resolving at 17:00 UTC with about 201,000 dollars in volume, prices the 78,000 to 80,000 dollar range at 65 percent, up 45 points, against 36 percent for the 76,000 to 78,000 dollar range. Each contract pays 1 dollar if the correct range resolves yes.

Polymarket’s market for Bitcoin’s price on November 1 assigns a 65 percent probability to the $78,000 to $80,000 range, according to Lines. That represents an increase of 45 percentage points.

The neighboring $76,000 to $78,000 range is priced at 36 percent. The two readings place the higher band ahead, but they reflect contract pricing rather than a confirmed Bitcoin settlement price.

Settlement and trading activity

The market resolves at 17:00 UTC on November 1, 2026, with approximately $201,000 in volume, according to Lines. Each contract pays $1 if its specified price range resolves yes.

The supplied update is dated November 1, 2026, at 12:15 PM ET. It does not provide a final resolution, so the reported probabilities should not be read as the outcome.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 45-percentage-point rise marks a substantial repricing toward the $78,000 to $80,000 band; the supplied material does not identify what drove it.
  • The quoted 65 percent and 36 percent readings total 101 percent. They are reported market prices, not a perfectly normalized probability split.
  • Resolution depends on the correct price range at 17:00 UTC, with a $1 payout for a contract that resolves yes.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    Lineslines.com
    Publisher
    https://www.lines.com
    Source URL
    The feed did not publish this story's article address.

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