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Bitcoin traders favor $70,000 threshold over return to six figures

Predictable reports Polymarket traders price a Bitcoin touch of 70,000 dollars in 2026 as the most probable unresolved threshold at 52 percent, against 24 percent for 90,000 dollars and 9 percent for 100,000 dollars, with about 82.7 million dollars traded across the market.

According to Predictable, Polymarket traders assign a 52 percent probability to Bitcoin touching $70,000 in 2026, making it the most likely unresolved threshold in the market.

The figures, published Nov 8, 2026 at 8:15 AM ET, put that outcome ahead of a move to $90,000 or $100,000.

Higher thresholds draw lower probabilities

The $90,000 threshold is priced at 24 percent, according to Predictable. A touch of $100,000 carries a 9 percent probability.

About $82.7 million has been traded across the market. That figure represents activity across the market, rather than volume attributed to any one of the three thresholds.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 52 percent price places a $70,000 touch only slightly above an even chance; it is the leading unresolved threshold, not a certainty.
  • Pricing falls sharply at higher levels: 24 percent for $90,000 and 9 percent for $100,000 indicate substantially less confidence in those outcomes.
  • These contracts concern whether Bitcoin touches a threshold in 2026, not its price at year-end.
PolymarketBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    Predictable
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