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Bitcoin dominates Kalshi’s short-window trading as ten series remain inactive

Kalshi lists 30 fifteen-minute series, of which 20 were trading in the November 4 snapshot, and Bitcoin made up 73 percent of the contracts traded across them over the last day of windows. The crypto series settle on CF Benchmarks 60-second averages.

Kalshi’s fifteen-minute markets showed a strong concentration in Bitcoin in a November 4 snapshot, according to PredictionMarketPicks. Bitcoin represented 73 percent of contracts traded across those markets over the last day of windows.

Trading concentrated in Bitcoin

Kalshi lists 30 fifteen-minute series, with 20 trading in the snapshot. That left ten listed series without trading in that observation.

The figures distinguish the breadth of Kalshi’s listings from the distribution of trading activity. While 20 series were trading, Bitcoin alone accounted for nearly three-quarters of the contracts traded across the fifteen-minute markets.

Settlement benchmark matters

The crypto series settle using CF Benchmarks 60-second averages, according to PredictionMarketPicks. That settlement measure is distinct from the fifteen-minute duration of the series.

The report was published on Nov 4, 2026, at 9:00 PM ET. Its trading figures describe the November 4 snapshot and the last day of windows, rather than establishing a longer-term pattern.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Activity is concentrated: Bitcoin’s 73 percent share measures contracts traded, not its share of listed series or the probability of a particular outcome.
  • Listings do not guarantee trading: Only 20 of the 30 fifteen-minute series were trading in the snapshot.
  • Resolution rules are central: Readers assessing the crypto contracts need to distinguish their fifteen-minute windows from the CF Benchmarks 60-second averages used for settlement.
KalshiBitcoinInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionMarketPicks
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