Election pessimism rises as Polymarket favors Democratic control of Congress
BeInCrypto reports analytics firm Santiment counted its highest level of bearish election posts in a month of tracked social data as Polymarket priced a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 74 percent. It notes Polymarket also gives 81 percent odds that the Associated Press calls the House by the end of Wednesday, while Bitcoin traded near 77,768 dollars, up 0.2 percent in 24 hours.
BeInCrypto reported on Nov 3, 2026, at 6:45 PM ET that election-related pessimism in tracked social posts had reached a monthly high, while Polymarket put the probability of Democrats winning both chambers at 74 percent.
Social sentiment and election pricing
Analytics firm Santiment counted the highest level of bearish election posts in a month of tracked social data, according to BeInCrypto. That finding describes the volume of negative election commentary, rather than a probability estimate for the outcome.
Polymarket’s 74 percent pricing for a Democratic sweep provides a separate measure: traders’ assessment of control of both chambers. The supplied reporting does not establish a causal relationship between that pricing and the increase in bearish posts.
Call timing and Bitcoin
According to BeInCrypto, Polymarket also assigned an 81 percent probability to the Associated Press calling the House by the end of Wednesday. That market concerns the timing of a call, distinct from the market on which party wins control.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, traded near 77,768 dollars, up 0.2 percent in 24 hours. The reported price move does not, by itself, establish how election expectations affected the cryptocurrency.
What it means for prediction markets
- Outcome and timing are separate questions: The 74 percent Democratic-sweep probability and the 81 percent House-call probability address different events.
- Social sentiment is not an election forecast: Santiment’s monthly high measures bearish posting activity, not the likelihood of either party winning.
- The crypto connection remains unproven: The supplied reporting places Bitcoin’s modest gain alongside election sentiment and market pricing, without demonstrating causation.
Sources & attribution
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- BeInCrypto
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Full attribution under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 17 U.S.C. § 512: this article is an original report by Infiniti Intelligence that summarizes the reporting of the publishers named above, links to their original work, and reproduces no protected expression beyond brief factual reference and in-line attribution (“according to BeInCrypto”). All rights in the underlying reporting remain with the publishers listed; nothing here implies endorsement by or affiliation with them. Rights holders may request correction, update or removal through the contact address published at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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