Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement priced at 100.0% on Polymarket, up 13.0 points, on $233K traded

A Polymarket contract on whether the Bank of Canada would raise its overnight-rate target by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement reached a displayed probability of 100.0%, up 13.0 percentage points, with $233K traded. According to PredictionBubbles’ Oct. 28, 16:12 UTC finance-board reading, the contract was among the category’s leading movers.

A sharp move, not an official result

PredictionBubbles ranks its movers by the absolute change in implied probability over the preceding 24 hours. The Bank of Canada contract’s placement therefore reflects its price shift, rather than its standing by trading volume.

The displayed 100.0% is a market price expressed as an implied probability. The supplied material does not include a Bank of Canada announcement or confirmation of the contract’s settlement, so the reading alone does not establish the policy outcome.

The broader finance board

According to PredictionBubbles, the finance page tracks 200 open markets: 21 on Kalshi and 179 on Polymarket. Its coverage includes rate decisions, inflation, GDP, recession questions, and index and commodity levels.

The page identifies the Polymarket contract asking whether Fed interest rates would remain unchanged after the October 2026 meeting as its most-traded finance market at the latest refresh, with $30.1M traded. That is a separate ranking from the probability-movement list featuring the Bank of Canada contract.

PredictionBubbles republishes venue data every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying platforms is continuous. It also cautions that related contracts across venues can differ in wording and settlement rules.

What it means for prediction markets

• Price is not confirmation: The 100.0% display indicates the contract’s quoted implied probability, not independent verification of a 25 bps Bank of Canada increase.
• Movement and volume measure different things: The 13.0-point rise describes the 24-hour repricing; $233K represents total reported trading, not necessarily activity during that period.
• Timing and terms matter: A 15-minute publication cycle can lag live trading, and comparisons with other contracts require attention to their precise questions and settlement criteria.