OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 priced at 3.8% on Polymarket, up 0.4 points, on $1.1M traded
PredictionBubbles' finance board, fresh on its Oct. 28, 17:41 UTC read, lists the OpenAI IPO December 2026 contract among its traded finance markets, in a…
Polymarket traders priced an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 at a 3.8% probability, up 0.4 percentage points over the past 24 hours, with $1.1M traded. The contract appeared on PredictionBubbles’ finance board in its Oct. 28, 17:41 UTC snapshot.
A low probability, with a modest rise
The increase left the market-implied likelihood low despite the upward move. The supplied material identifies no OpenAI announcement or other company-specific development explaining the repricing.
The $1.1M figure represents total traded volume, rather than activity during the latest 24-hour period. According to PredictionBubbles, its board reports probability changes and cumulative trading volume separately, distinguishing markets attracting the most turnover from those recording the largest price moves.
Where the contract sits
According to PredictionBubbles, the finance board tracked 202 open markets across Kalshi and Polymarket: 24 from Kalshi and 178 from Polymarket. Its coverage includes interest-rate decisions, inflation, recession outcomes, and index and commodity levels.
The largest finance market by traded volume at the latest refresh concerned whether Fed interest rates would remain unchanged after the October 2026 meeting. That Polymarket contract had $30.2M traded, according to PredictionBubbles.
PredictionBubbles republishes venue data every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying platforms continues between updates. The OpenAI reading therefore represents a snapshot, not a fixed forecast. The aggregator also cautions that related contracts across venues can differ in their wording and resolution rules.
What it means for prediction markets
- The direction and level tell different stories: A 0.4-percentage-point rise indicates higher pricing over 24 hours, but 3.8% still implies a low likelihood of an IPO by December 31, 2026.
- Volume is not an explanation: The $1.1M total documents trading activity; the supplied material does not establish what drove the move.
- Timing and contract terms matter: The board refreshes every 15 minutes, and any comparison with another IPO contract should account for differences in deadlines, wording and resolution rules.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/finance/
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