Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch priced at 22.5% on Polymarket, up 3.5 points, on $188K traded

The Polymarket contract on whether Ink’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) will exceed $100M one day after launch was priced at 22.5%, up 3.5 percentage points over 24 hours, with $188K traded. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the upward-moving crypto markets on its Oct. 28 movers board.

The snapshot used venue prices collected on 28 Oct 2026 at 17:40 UTC. The increase reflects a higher market-implied probability for the valuation threshold, although the price remained below 50%.

How the move is measured

According to PredictionBubbles, its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes. It ranks changes over 24 hours in probability points—not relative percentage gains—with volume and liquidity providing context rather than determining placement.

The board’s comparison covered 1,998 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier price were eligible, and its table displayed the top 150 of 510 markets that had moved at least one probability point.

What the snapshot leaves unanswered

The supplied material does not identify a news event or announcement behind Ink’s repricing. It also does not provide the contract’s detailed settlement rules or order-book depth, limiting what can be concluded about the cause and durability of the move.

The $188K traded figure adds activity context, but it does not by itself establish how much liquidity was available at the quoted price. PredictionBubbles distinguishes changes in probability from trading activity: a contract can attract substantial turnover without moving much, or shift sharply on limited trading.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level differ: The 3.5-point rise moved pricing toward the above-$100M outcome, but the resulting 22.5% probability still placed it below even odds.
• Timing defines the question: The contract concerns FDV one day after launch, not whether Ink exceeds $100M at any point.
• The evidence is a snapshot: The reported price and move describe the 17:40 UTC reading; the supplied material does not establish a catalyst or show whether the repricing persisted.