Australian regulator criticizes retail prediction markets and likens contracts to bets

ASIC questions the retail case

Australia’s securities regulator ASIC is not currently persuaded that retail prediction markets serve the public interest, according to Bitcoin.com. Its position puts the nature of event-based contracts at the centre of the regulatory debate.

ASIC described those contracts as carrying all the characteristics of a bet, Bitcoin.com reported. It also compared them with binary options, which are prohibited for retail clients until 2031.

No applications from operators

ASIC Chair Sarah Court told senators that no operator has applied to run a prediction market in Australia, according to Bitcoin.com. The reported remarks therefore concern ASIC’s broader view of the products, rather than a decision on an operator’s application.

Polymarket has been blocked in Australia since August 2025 as an illegal gambling service, Bitcoin.com reported. That restriction is distinct from ASIC’s stated doubts about whether retail prediction markets are in the public interest.

What it means for prediction markets

• Regulatory classification is central: ASIC’s comparison with bets and binary options points to the question of how prediction-market contracts would be treated in Australia.
• There is no application to track: Court’s statement identifies no operator currently seeking permission to run an Australian prediction market.
• The dates concern different restrictions: The retail binary-options prohibition runs until 2031; Polymarket’s block has been in place since August 2025. Neither establishes an approval timetable for prediction markets.