Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Jan 1, 2027 priced at 4.0% on Kalshi, up 1.0 point, on $1.5M traded
PredictionBubbles' finance board, on its fresh Oct. 30, 12:10 UTC crawl at 194 open markets with $167.6M traded, lists the iPhone 18 release contract among its finance…
Kalshi’s contract on whether Apple Inc. will release the iPhone 18 before Jan 1, 2027 was priced at a market-implied probability of 4.0%, up 1.0 percentage point over the previous 24 hours, according to PredictionBubbles. The contract had $1.5M in traded volume.
The figures accompanied an Oct 30, 2026 update published at 8:09 AM ET. The summary identifies the underlying board crawl as Oct. 30 at 12:10 UTC, covering 194 open finance markets with $167.6M traded.
A low probability despite the rise
The increase left the iPhone 18 release outcome priced as unlikely. The supplied material reports the contract’s price, daily movement and volume, but provides no Apple announcement or other reporting explaining the change.
The $1.5M figure represents total traded volume, rather than activity during the latest 24-hour period. PredictionBubbles distinguishes that measure from its daily probability-change column, so the volume should not be read as money traded specifically during the price increase.
The board behind the figures
According to PredictionBubbles, its finance coverage combines 17 Kalshi markets and 177 Polymarket markets. The site republishes venue data every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying platforms continues between updates.
PredictionBubbles operates as an information service displaying platform prices, not as a venue accepting wagers or holding funds. It also cautions that related contracts across platforms can have different wording and resolution rules.
What it means for prediction markets
- The move and the level tell different stories: A 1.0-point rise signals a higher implied probability over 24 hours, but the reported level remains 4.0%.
- Volume is cumulative: The $1.5M traded does not establish how much activity drove the latest change.
- The deadline defines the question: This contract concerns release before Jan 1, 2027—not whether an iPhone 18 will eventually appear. Detailed resolution criteria are not included in the supplied material.
- The price is a snapshot: The board’s 15-minute refresh schedule means displayed probabilities can lag subsequent trading.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/finance/
Date & time:
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