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Early Democratic Senate holds accompany rising Kalshi prices in Texas

PredictionMarketPicks reports the first two Senate calls of the night at 8:03 p.m. ET, with AP calling Georgia for Jon Ossoff and New Jersey for Cory Booker, both Democratic holds from the 47-seat floor. Its board since 7:17 p.m. shows Senate control moving from 80 cents to 91 cents on Kalshi, Texas rising from 73 cents to 91 cents for James Talarico, and South Carolina climbing from 31 cents to 63 cents without a call.

PredictionMarketPicks reported the first two Senate calls of the night at 8:03 p.m. ET on Nov 3, 2026: AP called Georgia for Jon Ossoff and New Jersey for Cory Booker.

Both results were Democratic holds from the party’s 47-seat floor, according to PredictionMarketPicks. They confirmed retained seats rather than gains.

Market prices move beyond the called races

The outlet’s board showed the Senate-control price on Kalshi increasing from 80 cents to 91 cents since 7:17 p.m. The supplied summary does not identify which party’s control contract that price represents.

Over the same period, the Texas Senate price for James Talarico rose from 73 cents to 91 cents, according to PredictionMarketPicks. That market movement was separate from the AP calls in Georgia and New Jersey.

South Carolina climbed from 31 cents to 63 cents without a call, the outlet reported. Its update was published at 8:30 PM ET, leaving a clear distinction between confirmed race calls and changing market expectations.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Calls and prices carry different information: AP’s calls covered Georgia and New Jersey; the reported Texas and South Carolina moves reflected market pricing, not additional calls.
  • Holds are not pickups: Ossoff and Booker retained Democratic seats from the 47-seat floor, rather than adding seats through flips.
  • Contract details matter: The summary names Talarico for the Texas price but does not specify the party or candidate attached to the Senate-control and South Carolina prices.
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