Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day priced at 5.5% on Polymarket

Anthropic valuation-band odds decline

A Polymarket contract on whether Anthropic’s market capitalization will finish between $1.25T and $1.5T at the close of its IPO day was priced at 5.5% in the supplied Oct 25, 2026 · 2:54 PM ET update. The reported move was down 3.2 percentage points, with $188K traded.

The contract concerns a specific valuation interval at the end of the first trading day—not Anthropic’s IPO offer valuation or its market capitalization at some later date. The decline therefore reflects a lower market-implied probability for that particular closing range.

What the data establishes

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers board compares probabilities over 24 hours and refreshes every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. It ranks changes in percentage points rather than relative percentages, with trading volume presented as context rather than a ranking input.

The supplied source-page snapshot was read from the venues on 25 Oct 2026, 22:17 UTC, later than the headline update. Its text explains the scanner’s methodology but does not include an Anthropic-specific entry, so it does not independently confirm the headline figures or identify a catalyst for the move.

The material also provides no prices for alternative Anthropic valuation ranges. A decline in this contract alone cannot establish whether traders shifted toward a closing valuation below $1.25T or above $1.5T.

What it means for prediction markets

• Read the move narrowly: The 5.5% price concerns the $1.25T–$1.5T IPO-day closing band, not the probability of an IPO itself.
• Keep units clear: The reported decline is 3.2 percentage points, not a 3.2% relative decrease.
• Volume is context, not proof of depth: The $188K traded figure does not, by itself, establish available liquidity or explain why the price changed.
• Direction remains unresolved: Without adjacent valuation-band prices, the repricing does not show whether expectations for Anthropic’s overall valuation rose or fell.