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Bets on Anthropic reaching a $1.8 trillion IPO valuation fall to 54%

PredictionBubbles, reading Polymarket prices on October 31, prices Anthropic's market cap being 1.8 trillion dollars or greater at market close on IPO day at 54.0 percent, down 11.5 points in 24 hours. The market has traded 310,000 dollars over its life, with 3,000 dollars in the last day, and resolves on January 1, 2028.

According to PredictionBubbles, Polymarket priced a 54.0 percent chance on October 31 that Anthropic’s market capitalization would reach at least 1.8 trillion dollars at the close of its IPO day. That probability fell 11.5 points over 24 hours.

Pricing and trading activity

The update, published Oct 31, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET, puts the implied probability slightly above even odds despite the daily decline.

PredictionBubbles reported 310,000 dollars in lifetime trading volume for the market, including 3,000 dollars over the last day. The figures distinguish the market’s cumulative activity from the trading accompanying the latest price move.

The closing valuation is the test

The outcome concerns Anthropic’s market capitalization at market close on IPO day—not its opening valuation or an intraday peak. The market resolves on January 1, 2028, according to PredictionBubbles.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 54.0 percent price leaves the threshold outcome narrowly favored, following an 11.5-point decline in 24 hours.
  • Last-day volume of 3,000 dollars provides context for the repricing; the supplied reporting does not identify what drove it.
  • The IPO-day closing valuation is the relevant measurement, while January 1, 2028 is the stated resolution date.
PolymarketInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

Sources & attribution

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    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
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