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Polymarket odds of Anthropic going public by late 2026 slide to 85.8 percent

Polymarket traders lowered the chance that Anthropic holds an IPO by December 31, 2026 to 85.8 percent, down 7.8 points in 24 hours. The market has 1.5 million dollars in lifetime volume, with 13,000 dollars traded in the last day, and resolves on January 1, 2027.

According to PredictionBubbles, Polymarket’s implied probability of an Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026 stood at 85.8 percent, a decline of 7.8 points over 24 hours. The report was published on Oct 31, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET.

Pricing and trading activity

Despite the decline, the market continued to assign a substantially higher probability to an IPO occurring by the deadline than to it not occurring.

PredictionBubbles reported 1.5 million dollars in lifetime trading volume, including 13,000 dollars traded during the last day. Those figures distinguish the market’s cumulative activity from the trading associated with the latest 24-hour window.

Deadline and resolution

The contract concerns whether Anthropic holds an IPO by December 31, 2026, and is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, according to PredictionBubbles. The supplied summary does not identify a catalyst for the probability decline or provide further resolution criteria.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A lower probability, not a reversal: The 7.8-point drop reduced the implied likelihood to 85.8 percent, leaving an IPO by the deadline as the strongly favored outcome.
  • Volume needs context: The 1.5 million dollars represents lifetime volume; 13,000 dollars changed hands in the last day. Neither figure alone explains the price movement.
  • Timing matters: December 31, 2026 is the event deadline, while January 1, 2027 is the stated resolution date.
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Sources & attribution

Published
  1. Source
    PredictionBubblespredictionbubbles.com
    Publisher
    https://predictionbubbles.com
    Source URL
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