Peltola leads Alaska Senate pricing as ranked-choice count awaits November 18
Action Network reports Polymarket and Kalshi still price Mary Peltola as the favorite in the Alaska Senate race at 87 cents and 88 cents, because ballots left to count are expected to lean her way. With 74.3 percent of votes counted, Kalshi tracker showed Peltola ahead 102,701 to 102,075, a margin of 626 votes, the Kalshi market had about 15.26 million dollars in volume, and ranked-choice tabulation is not scheduled until November 18.
Mary Peltola remains the favorite in Alaska’s Senate prediction markets despite a narrow lead in the reported vote count, according to Action Network. Her contracts were priced at 87 cents on Polymarket and 88 cents on Kalshi.
A narrow count, a stronger market favorite
In its November 4, 2026, report published at 1:30 PM ET, Action Network said Kalshi’s tracker showed 74.3 percent of votes counted. Peltola had 102,701 votes against 102,075, putting her ahead by 626 votes.
The market pricing reflects expectations that the ballots still outstanding will favor Peltola, according to Action Network. That expectation distinguishes her strong position in the contracts from the much tighter margin in the votes counted so far.
Tabulation remains ahead
The Kalshi market had approximately $15.26 million in trading volume. Its 88-cent price was one cent above the corresponding Polymarket price.
Ranked-choice tabulation is not scheduled until November 18, according to Action Network. That leaves a further counting milestone ahead even as both platforms price Peltola as the favorite.
What it means for prediction markets
- Remaining ballots are central: The reported rationale for Peltola’s pricing is that uncounted ballots are expected to lean her way, rather than the size of her current lead.
- The count is still incomplete: A 626-vote advantage with 74.3 percent counted is distinct from a settled outcome.
- November 18 is the next stated milestone: Ranked-choice tabulation remains pending, while Polymarket and Kalshi prices are separated by just one cent.
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