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Peltola gains ground as Alaska Senate market leans toward Democratic flip

Polyguana reports Democrat Mary Peltola has climbed to 87.5 percent in the Alaska Senate market against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, up from 83 percent in the previous live read. The board prices the race as a likely Democratic flip, with Alaska polls among the last to close tonight.

Democrat Mary Peltola reached 87.5 percent in the Alaska Senate prediction market against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, according to Polyguana’s Nov 3, 2026 update published at 10:15 PM ET.

The latest reading was up from 83 percent in the previous live update, a rise of 4.5 percentage points.

Market favors a change in party control

The market pricing points to a likely Democratic flip, according to Polyguana. Peltola’s advance strengthened that assessment relative to the preceding reading.

Alaska’s polls are among the last to close tonight. The reported probability reflects the market’s assessment, not a confirmed election outcome.

What it means for prediction markets

  • Direction: Peltola’s move from 83 percent to 87.5 percent indicates a stronger market preference for a Democratic win.
  • Remaining uncertainty: The market favors Peltola but does not price her victory as certain.
  • Timing: Alaska’s late poll closures remain important context for interpreting the election-night reading.
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