Peltola gains ground as Alaska Senate traders price a Democratic flip

Mary Peltola’s probability in the Alaska Senate market has risen to 83 percent against Dan Sullivan, according to Polyguana. The pricing puts a Democratic flip as the favored outcome.

A late-evening shift

Peltola had been priced at 71 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket at 7:15 p.m. ET. The reported increase to 83 percent represents a 12-percentage-point move.

Polyguana’s update was published on Nov 3, 2026, at 9:00 PM ET. The supplied summary does not specify whether the latest 83 percent reading applied to both platforms.

Poll timing remains important

Alaska is among the last states to close its polls tonight, according to Polyguana. The market shift therefore comes with the state’s late polling schedule still central to the evening’s timeline.

The available reporting describes market pricing, not a declared election result. It provides no vote totals or explanation for the change in Peltola’s probability.

What it means for prediction markets

• The move from 71 percent to 83 percent signals a stronger market expectation of a Peltola victory and a Democratic flip.
• Kalshi and Polymarket shared the 71 percent reading at 7:15 p.m. ET, but the summary does not establish that both reached 83 percent.
• Alaska’s late poll closures make the timing of price observations important; the reported probability should not be treated as a confirmed outcome.