Alaska Senate pricing leads venue discrepancies on Rivo’s arbitrage board

Mary Peltola’s Alaska Senate contract showed a 6-point difference between Gemini and Kalshi, the largest cross-venue gap on Rivo’s arbitrage board, according to Rivo’s November 4, 2026 update published at 8:45 AM ET.

The contract stood at 82 cents on Gemini and 88 cents on Kalshi. The morning snapshot also identified pricing differences in Bitcoin and Federal Reserve contracts.

Gaps extend beyond the Senate contract

Bitcoin end-of-2026 price bands differed by more than 3 points between Polymarket US and Kalshi, according to Rivo. The supplied summary did not identify the individual bands or specify which venue priced them higher.

Rivo also recorded a 3-point gap for a contract tied to a 25 basis point Fed rate hike. The summary did not name the venues involved or provide their respective prices.

What it means for prediction markets

• The largest reported discrepancy was in Alaska: Peltola’s 82-cent Gemini price was 6 points below Kalshi’s 88-cent price.
• Differences spanned multiple subjects: The snapshot covered an election contract, Bitcoin price bands and a Fed policy outcome.
• A quoted gap does not establish executable arbitrage: The supplied material does not include contract terms, fees or available trading depth needed to assess whether the differences could be captured.