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Democratic control forecasts trail market odds as election benchmark awaits results

Sikt Intelligence reports its AI superforecaster sits at 91 percent for a Democratic House against 94 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket, and 75 percent for a Democratic Senate against 76 percent on Kalshi and 78 percent on Polymarket. The live benchmark, updated on November 3, will be scored against the actual results.

Sikt Intelligence’s AI superforecaster assigns Democrats a 91 percent probability of controlling the House and a 75 percent probability of controlling the Senate, according to Sikt Intelligence. Both estimates sit below the corresponding probabilities on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Comparing the chamber forecasts

For the House, Kalshi and Polymarket each put Democratic control at 94 percent. The AI forecast is therefore 3 percentage points lower than both markets.

The Senate comparison shows a narrower gap with Kalshi. Its 76 percent probability is 1 percentage point above the AI estimate, while Polymarket’s 78 percent is 3 percentage points higher.

Across all three sets of estimates, Democratic control is more likely for the House than for the Senate. The disagreement concerns the degree of confidence, rather than which party is favored.

A benchmark awaiting outcomes

The live benchmark was updated on November 3, according to Sikt Intelligence. The report was published on Nov 3, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET, and the benchmark will be scored against the actual results.

What it means for prediction markets

  • House agreement: Kalshi and Polymarket both stand at 94 percent, compared with the AI’s 91 percent.
  • Senate variation: The AI estimate of 75 percent is closer to Kalshi’s 76 percent than to Polymarket’s 78 percent.
  • Evaluation remains pending: The forecasts provide a comparison ahead of scoring against actual results; the supplied material contains no outcome-based assessment.
KalshiPolymarketSenateInfiniti MarketsInfiniti Signals

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    Sikt Intelligence
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